Distance-based and stochastic uncertainty analysis for multi-criteria decision analysis in Excel using Visual Basic for Applications

Abstract

A program has been developed in Excel and written in Visual Basic for Applications, which enables a decision maker to examine the robustness of a solution obtained when using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The distance-based and stochastic uncertainty analysis approaches contained in the program allow a decision to be made with confidence that the alternative chosen is the best performing alternative under the range of probable circumstances. The uncertainty analysis methodology overcomes the limitations of existing sensitivity analysis techniques for MCDA by enabling all of the input parameters to be varied simultaneously within their expected ranges. The Weighted Sum Method (WSM) and PROMETHEE are the MCDA techniques available for the user to select in the program. The program is illustrated by applying it to a sustainable water resource development problem in the Northern Adelaide Plains, South Australia.