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Type: Journal article
Title: An econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952-2000
Author: Narayan, Paresh Kumar
Peng, Xiujian
Citation: Journal of Chinese Economics and Business Studies, 2006; 4(2):165-183
Publisher: Routledge
Issue Date: 2006
ISSN: 1476-5284
School/Discipline: School of Social Sciences: Gender, Work and Social Inquiry
Centre for Labour Research
Statement of
Paresh Kumar Narayan & Xiujian Peng
Abstract: This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.
Keywords: China; fertility transition; cointegration; family planning policy; social economic development
Rights: © Routledge
DOI: 10.1080/14765280600737039
Appears in Collections:Gender Studies and Social Analysis publications

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