Urban demographic futures: Replacement migration and social transformations

Abstract

The current and impending demographic shifts occurring in both north and south nations will have profound effects on the social, economic and physical structure of cities in north nations. The outlook for the next three decades is for reduced global population growth and the bulk of growth being concentrated in less developed nations. Indeed, a majority of more developed countries will experience absolute population declines and there will be a substantial ageing of their populations. Fertility decline has played a major role in this. Urban areas in north nations will continue to grow but their working age populations will decline and support ratios for older populations will also decline precipitously. International migration is playing an increasing role in the growth of populations in north urban centres. The United Nations in 2000 made a series of projections which indicate that for European Union nations to maintain current population levels, immigration levels need to increase by almost four times. Replacement migration is, however, only one type of policy intervention which can compensate for declines in population and working ages, and ageing with fertility and changes in workforce participation being other options. The reality is that immigration to north cities will continue to increase, not only because of a replacement component but because of continued global economic change, the proliferation of social networks and the growth of a global immigration industry. This movement is exacerbating patterns of social polarisation within these cities and will increase ethnic diversity in these cities with implications for economic, social and political change. It is also contributing to increased ethnic and cultural diversity, segmentation of labour markets and potentially raising debates about social cohesion within the cities. Increasingly, there are net internal migration losses being recorded in large cities in MDCs, although increasing net gains of international migrations are masking these losses. A number of possible explanations for these net losses are explored and their implications discussed. Finally, the possible demographic changes in ‘north’ cities over the next three decades are summarised.