China's changing internal migration: toward a China variant of Zelinsky's transition thesis

Abstract

China’s massive internal migration is no longer simply rural–urban and circular, but increasingly diversified. Hence, we overview current research into the emerging transition in China’s internal migration, present a critique of salient existing studies, and outline how a China variant of Zelinsky’s mobility transition theory might, with new sophistication and analytical power, account for the distinctive Chinese features of that momentous transition: its spatio-temporal patterns, and its causes and effects. The proposed thesis will show how parallels and distinctive differences that mark China’s internal circular migration have evolved over the last decade. We argue that factors adapted to Chinese circumstances should incorporate appropriate perspectives on demographic transition, social space, trans-locality and multi-locality in migration, socio-spatial inequality, and new-style urbanisation. We highlight also the need for more sophisticated methods, and propose the use of 2020 China Census and longitudinal and time-series survey datasets to analyse the scale, processes, causal mechanisms, and outcomes of the transition.