Quantifying responses of ecological communities to bioclimatic gradients

Abstract

The biotic change along environmental gradients has been the subject of study for well over a century, forming one of the first tools to understand how environment shapes the species and ecosystems that occur. However, gradient studies have historically relied on limited observations on a single transect, limiting their inductive power. Here, I investigate how this limitation can be addressed. I present case studies to illustrate how next-generation transect studies can integrate observations from a wider range of observations of phenotypes, species and communities; together with observations from multiple taxa and gradients. Leaf carbon isotope data from bioclimatic gradients in China, South Australia and Western Australia are integrated to demonstrate a variety of species- and community-level responses to water availability, providing evidence against the previously asserted claim of a simple and universal response. Vegetation data from the same gradient is surveyed with two separate survey methodologies are co-analysed to demonstrate climate is the primary regional determinant of vegetation structure and composition in South Australia, while topographic and edaphic variables are important at a local scale. I find no evidence of ecological disjunctions that may indicate a threshold of vegetation change associated with climate shifts. Comparison of plant and ant species turnover on a spatial gradient suggested that ant communities are ca. 7.5 times more sensitive than plant assemblages to spatial change, providing evidence that future climate change may force community reorganisation and a decoupling of these two taxa, potentially disrupting important interactions and ecosystem function. Well-designed transect studies have the potential to help resolve long-standing questions around the modes of species adaptation to change, as well as improving our understanding of how climate change will shape ecosystems in to the future