Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2440/108653
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Type: Journal article
Title: The impact of population ageing on house prices: a micro-simulation approach
Author: Chen, Y.
Gibb, K.
Leishman, C.
Wright, R.
Citation: Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2012; 59(5):523-542
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing
Issue Date: 2012
ISSN: 0036-9292
1467-9485
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Yu Chen, Kenneth Gibb, Chris Leishman, and Robert Wright
Abstract: This study attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999–2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing – or more generally changes in age structure – is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.
Rights: © 2012 Scottish Economic Society
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9485.2012.00593.x
Appears in Collections:Aurora harvest 3
Centre for Housing, Urban and Regional Planning publications

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