Analysis and modelling of crashes in Tasmania

Abstract

This report provides advice on the focus and components of the next Tasmanian Road Safety Strategy. The progress of the Tasmanian Road Safety Strategy 2007-2016, and the associated action plans, was reviewed through an analysis of crash data. It was found that the overall number of crashes per year in Tasmanian has remained fairly constant. However, the percentage of crashes that resulted in fatal or serious injuries has decreased by around five percent in the last decade. Several crash problem areas that had been identified and targeted with various road safety actions were investigated. The majority were found to have experienced a decrease in average crash rate from the period 2006-2010 to the period 2011-2014. Crashes involving older drivers, pedestrians, and cyclists were found to have an increased crash rate and may warrant further attention in the future. The number of fatal and serious casualties over the 2001-2014 period was reviewed and, based on the current trend, it was considered unlikely that the 2010-2015 casualty reduction target of 20 percent would be achieved. A model was then developed to predict the casualty trends into future years and determine the likelihood that future targets will be achieved. Modelling was performed to explore the effect of several potential road safety countermeasures and suggest what combination of these countermeasures might be used to improve the chances of reaching future targets under the current best practice approach of the Safe System.